By Henry Houston, College of Arts and Sciences
—Beth Plale, Executive Director, School of Computer and Data Sciences
On Nov. 3, voters will decide whether the U.S. president and his political party should maintain control of both chambers of Congress. The midterm election — held every four years midway through the president’s term — is when voters weigh in on the majority party’s performance.
“Typically, the president’s party loses seats in midterms because midterms function as a referendum on the administration in power,” said Chandler James, assistant professor, Department of Political Science. “This is magnified in this year’s midterm because Republicans entered the cycle having achieved a trifecta, or unified control of government, with Republicans in control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress.”
Only two midterm elections have seen a political party defy the trend of maintaining control in Congress: 1934 under Franklin D. Roosevelt and 2002 under George W. Bush.
With Election Day around the corner, College of Arts and Sciences experts weighed in on some of the key issues on the minds of voters — including data centers, the high cost of living and immigration — and why these issues have so much traction in this year’s election.
Election issue: AI data centers
Data centers have become a significant election issue because demand for artificial intelligence services is driving an unprecedented buildout of large-scale computing facilities. These data centers raise concerns about their scale, environmental footprint and impact on local communities. Citizens frequently report limited visibility into negotiations and development agreements, with non-disclosure provisions constraining public discussion. The challenge is not whether the U.S. should build the infrastructure needed for an AI-driven economy, but how to do so in a way that earns public trust. Communities deserve transparent planning, independent assessment of energy and water impacts, and assurance that data center operators, rather than local residents, bear the costs of the infrastructure required to support their growth.
Beth Plale, Executive Director, School of Computer and Data Sciences
Election issue: Anti-Republican sentiment
Since returning to office in 2025, President Donald Trump’s administration has pursued several controversial policies, putting Republicans in a precarious position heading into the midterms. Despite his low approval rating, Trump himself continues to project confidence, an essential part of his political brand.
However, many of his co-partisans find themselves in unexpectedly tight races and running against the political headwinds. This isn’t entirely surprising. When one party controls Washington, voters tend to blame the party in power when they don’t like the direction things are going. For Republicans, embracing an unpopular president too closely risks alienating persuadable voters, while distancing themselves too much could anger Trump or his supporters who remain critical to the Republican base.
Chandler James, Assistant Professor, Political Science
Election issue: High cost of living
Several policies enacted in 2025 help explain why the cost of living remains a top concern for voters. The expansion of tariffs raised import costs on a wide variety of goods. The tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act boosted household spending and widened the deficit, adding to demand-driven inflation. Stricter immigration enforcement raised labor costs in some industries and regions, though its overall effect on prices is harder to pin down. In 2026, the choice to engage in a new war with Iran has led to substantially increased fuel costs.
With inflation still well above their 2% target, Federal Reserve policymakers recently raised their benchmark interest rate for the first time since July 2023 and signaled that another increase is likely before the end of the year. In the short run, and before the midterms, the Federal Reserve’s action will lead to higher borrowing costs for shorter horizon loans, such as credit card balances and auto loans. Any relief on inflation itself will take longer to arrive, likely well after the midterm elections.
Jeremy Piger, Professor, Department of Economics
Election issue: Transgender rights
Republican in-fighting and historic low approval ratings for Trump are prompting Republican candidates to "fall back" on what's worked in the past. Traditionally, "what's worked" is anti-LGBTQ fearmongering to generate votes. This was the idea behind anti-marriage equality campaigns in the late 1990s and early 2000s. And it was the winning strategy for Trump 2.0.
However, some Republican strategists worry this will not work for midterms. First, voters who were catalyzed by anti-trans politics in 2024 have what they wanted: explicitly anti-trans state legislation, Supreme Court decisions and federal guidance. Second, there are other, more concerning, issues for Republican and independent voters: data centers, AI more generally, housing affordability and job market indicators, to name a few. These voters might not be satiated by ad campaigns about transgender athletes. Third, moderate Democratic candidates are walking back their support for trans rights, weakening the Republican stronghold on anti-trans rhetoric and shifting the battle lines of the culture wars.
Alison Gash, Professor and Department Head, Political Science
Election issue: Immigration policies
Immigration is one of the most important topics on voters’ minds this election season, as it has been for some time. Going into November, what stands out is how quickly Republicans have lost their political advantage on this issue. In 2024, Donald Trump and other GOP candidates benefited from voter concerns over border security. Yet the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign and the resulting deaths of U.S. citizens in Minneapolis have contributed to a sharp decline in public approval for Republicans. This shift on immigration has the potential to impact pivotal contests from Texas to Maine. Most Americans favor compromise reform plans that balance border control with stronger immigrant integration and membership.
Daniel Tichenor, Philip H. Knight Chair of Social Science and Faculty Director of the Wayne Morse Center of Law and Politics